He said Vigo County is fairly evenly divided between those who identify as Republicans and those who identify as Democrats. Things have been bad for so long, they dont care.. Until we have term limits for politicians, this country doesnt have a prayer.. Carol Jacobs and her husband were lifelong Democrats until 2016. Comparing the most recent elections (2000-2020) to those in earlier periods (1960-1980), we find a striking decline in the proportion of bellwether counties, i.e., those with correct prediction in past elections. Hamilton sees value in both parties, he said, but he considers himself Democratic-leaning. Im not happy with either party. Jim was awarded the Reed Irvine Accuracy in . Median household incomes range from $65,000 in Bremer County, Iowa, to $32,000 in Hidalgo County in New Mexico. The All-Or-Nothing Bellwether: These are states or counties that choose the national winner every time. We just couldnt believe that Trump had lost.. The 19 bellwethers tend to be poorer, whiter, older, and less educated than the rest of the country, according to an August paper by researchers from the University of Denver and the University of New Hampshire. That streak ended in 2020 when voters cast the highest percentage of ballots for Republican Donald Trump14,628 (60.83 percent) to Democrat Joe Bidens 9,008 (37.46 percent). They run the gamut from. President Trump won every single bellwether county, except Clallam County in Washington. Competing for the Democratic nomination are John Cranley and former Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley. (Michael Sakal/The Epoch Times). I think everyone has the same opinion that things arent good.. Sawyer County, Wisconsin, and Clallam County, Washington, have substantial Native American populations, the authors said. The Wall Street Journal and The Epoch Times independently analyzed the results of 19 counties around the United States that have nearly perfect presidential voting records over the last 40 years. Teresa Shepherd, a middle-aged woman living in Riley, just southeast of Terre Haute, has never cared much about voting. About The Author. We can place an order and immediately get an email back of what they dont have. We live in an evenly divided nation, and the past five presidential elections demonstrate that well with their extremely close outcomes, Bergbower, an associate professor at Indiana State University, said in an email to The Epoch Times. There were lines of boaters with banners and flagsthere mustve been about 2,000 boats full of people participating, Tammy added. Many counties in states that have reliably voted for one party for many cycles are home to counties which have almost always voted for the winner of the election; for example, South Carolina has two strong bellwether counties despite being a reliably Republican state, and California has a number of strong bellwethers in its central valley despite being a reliably Democratic state.. Medicare is becoming a joke. Guests are invited to enjoy live music from The BanDura BanDuo, featuring Angelika and Justin Mehes, a brother-sister musical act, visit the Cheremosh Ukrainian Dance Ensemble's costume display featuring traditional Ukrainian folk dance costumes, and connect with the . But what would be striking is for it to end so radically. They missed in 1908 and 1952, but otherwise, the county has well earned its reputation as a bellwether. Im looking at both sides of it. Right now, its horrible. However, the political viewpoints of its residents are mixed as they have become more wary and leery of the government. She registered as a Democrat about 40 years ago and has never bothered to change her affiliation, although she voted for Trump in 2016 and plans to do the same this year. Notify me of follow-up comments by email. The morale of the people up there is bad. It also has a failing manufacturing sector with once Democratic-leaning union workers who may have found Trumps America First message appealing in recent years. Vigo County's most recent winning streak ended this year, as it did for nearly all the country's reliable bellwethers, most of them blue-collar, overwhelmingly white communities in the Rust Belt. He was concerned about the situation in Ukraine. He received his bachelors degree in mechanical engineering from the University of Toledo and a Masters degree in electrical engineering from Northwestern in Illinois. Theyre scared. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. Another Ridgway resident said hes more enthusiastic to vote for Trump this year. I kind of keep in my bubble. Articles after the 2020 election examining the predictive power of previous bellwethers are found in other sources, including the Wall Street Journal and the Epoch Times. Fourth, it lists whether they won Florida, Ohio and Iowa . Of the 19 bellwether counties that have consistently voted for the presidential winner since 1980, all but one chose Trump, the Journal found, PJ Media reported. I got a life. Note: This article gives the views of the author, and not the position of USAPP American Politics and Policy, nor the London School of Economics. I think its very political right now, honestly. Weve never done that before.. When you were in the union, they always wanted you to vote for Democrats, Paul said. As a father, I would be curious about what my kids are doing.. We are a rural county here, Hill told The Epoch Times. Shortages are all over the place, Miller said. But, just within the last year, the price of everything has gone up. When Republican Dr. Ted Bowlus defeated Democrat Joel Kuhlman in the 2016 election, it completed a single-party commission. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. And it can happen.. People need to get a job, get out and work. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. Why are you trying so hard to get this one guy out of office? he said of the disproven Russian collusion accusations and the presidents impeachment. This includes personalizing content and advertising. Over the same time period, Democrat registrations have dipped from 9,526 to 7,576. The Upper Mississippi River Valley and it [sic] surrounding area, in particular, appears to be an epicenter of these high-scoring bellwethers., Teresa Shepherd, resident of the Indiana bellwether county of Vigo, in front of her daughters house in Seelyville, Ind., on Oct. 20, 2020. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. Taking the pulse in Vigo County, Indiana, which has voted for the presidential winner in all but two elections over the past century, Cara is an Orange County, New York-based Epoch Times reporter. Pre-performance Lobby events. (Cara Ding/The Epoch Times). That doesnt make sense to me, Tisdell said. He likes how the Democratic Party helps lower-income people. They mostly favor who they believe would be best suited to tackle the issues at hand. The counties tend to be clustered in the Midwest and the Northeast, with only four of the counties not falling into one of those regions, they said. Tisdell wanted to find out for himself, so he began to do his own research, reading mainstream news on both sides, as well as reports by independent citizen journalists. Farming also is a big part of Wood County's make up in northwest Ohio. Ever since COVID started, it hasnt gotten any better.. That is, until this year. If we dont stop them, if we dont take a stand basically were moving into socialism.. Theyve been dubbed bellwether counties and until this year, no president since at least Ronald Reagan has missed even one. Just off Interstate 75 at the Pemberville/Bowling Green exit, is Frickers, a popular eatery and gathering place for people of all ages, whereChris Chamberlin ofBowling Green works as the restaurants manager. Miller is often faced with tough decisions in his business. Port Clinton, Ohio. When there was, we were making money pulling people out of ditches.. We need to be safe, and I dont think we are right now.. What you need to know, summarized in one email. Jacobs believes theres more enthusiasm for Trump now than before the 2016 electionin Elk County and around the country. In a 2020 article, Daniel Zimny-Schmitt and Michael Harris look for bellwether counties in the period 1980-2016 and identify nineteen such. This shows not only his strength but also the level of polarisation that took place in the 2020 elections.. Part of his route is driving up to Detroit and Flint, Michigan, every day. Getting fertilizer can be a challenge.. We and the rest of the states boards of elections have been directed by the Ohio Secretary of States Office to hold the election on May 3. Bellwethers arent a crystal balltheir streak was expected to end sooner or later. The ones he lost went to Biden by a margin of about four points on average. The sentiments of those arriving at or leaving the Kroger grocery down the street in Port Clinton echoed those at the gas station. There is nothing we can do about it; the power is out of our hands.. First, we can readily imagine that some counties demographically/politically mirror the nation, and thus monitoring this small set of counties closely would tell us with high predictive reliability what will happen nationally. While the Royal Drive In has been in the family for 60 years and serves a steady stream of local regulars, Martin says she wont recover until at least next summer, when she can get an extra boost, especially from traveling Canadiansas long as the border is open. One major planned project in Wood County pulled outPeloton, an exercise bike and interactive exercise equipment manufacturer. Even Heidi Mackey, the clerk inside the station who said she hasnt voted since 2018, said shell likely vote in the May 3 primary. He also drives more than 40 miles from Marblehead to Wellington to pick up his truck. A lot of people think things are. Martin plans to turn up at the polling booth on Election Day. Thus, as polarization rises, the potential for counties shifting their mean party preference across different elections declines. Bernard Grofman University of California, Irvine Petr Svab is a reporter covering New York. In 2016, nearly 100 million eligible Americans didnt vote. Jeff Myers, a lifelong Vigo County resident in Riley, on the other hand, wont let the big events of the day, such as riots and the pandemic, determine his vote. It hurts the older people like me who are on a fixed income.. The City Center festival continued with Kyiv City Ballet, a Christopher Wheeldon duet and a daring work for Dayton Contemporary Dance Company. Third, it lists the fraction of bellwether counties each candidate won Obama at 18 of 19, Trump at 18 of 19 and Biden at one of 19. This is a high farming community.. Bellwether Counties Went Overwhelmingly for Trump in 2020 Teresa Shepherd, resident of the Indiana bellwether county of Vigo, in front of her daughter's house in Seelyville, Ind., on Oct. 20,. It could be said that Ottawa County is one of the top bellwether counties in Ohio, if not the country. I just dont think hes capable of doing the job that its going to require of him.. When gas went up that time, our sales went down to zero, Zulch said. It was easy. For example, if we call a county a bellwether if it has one less correct match than the number of elections in a sequence, we will get nearly 19 bellwethers even in a set of eleven elections, and in a set of seven elections, we will see 197 bellwethers far more than the 27 we would find under our assumptions when we require a bellwether to have an unblemished record of predictive success. March 1, 2022 Updated: March 3, 2022 Print It could be said that Ottawa County is one of the top bellwether counties in Ohio, if not the country. Figure 1 Counties expected to have unbroken or near unbroken string of correct matches with national election outcome if each county has a 50 percent chance of voting for the winner. The shift is evident when comparing current registrations with the 2016 numbers. Our infrastructure is in bad shape.. We find that bellwether success is almost entirely a matter of random coin tosses in multiple counties over time to create an appearance of predictive power that is a matter of chance. Richard Zulch, an Army veteran who served in Vietnam as a combat engineer from 1969 through 1971 and is the quartermaster for Veterans of Foreign Wars Post 4811 in Bowling Green, said he has been able to see the political landscape from both sides of the fence. He told The Epoch Times that hes facing workforce shortages and currently only has 18 cookshalf of what he normally would have. Yet unofficial vote counts now show Biden in the lead and with enough electoral votes to claim the presidency. In 2016, he definitely was the lesser of two evils, Zulch said. In particular, recent research which identified nineteen bellwether counties found that they tended to be whiter, older, less educated, have lower median incomes, have a lower percentage of workers in the labor force, and have higher rates of vacant housing than the country as a whole. These counties also disproportionately came from the Midwest and the Northeast. Epoch Times: "Bellwether Counties Went Overwhelmingly for Trump in 2020" Find UFOs, The Apocalypse, New World Order, Political Analysis, Alternative Health, Armageddon, Conspiracies, Prophecies, Spirituality, Home Schooling, Home Mortgages and more, in: Rumor Mill News Reading Room, Current Archive A diverse group of residents, many were surprised to wake up the morning of Nov. 4, 2020, to see that Joe Biden overtook Trumps leads in numerous battleground states from the night beforesuch as in Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. RIDGWAY, Pa.Tucked into a wooded valley in north-central Pennsylvania is the bellwether borough of Ridgway, the county seat . Most of the jobs up here are part-time or seasonal. From 1980 to 2012, for instance, these bellwether counties consistently voted within a few points of the national popular vote. However, in the 2020 primary election, more Democrats had turned out to vote3,413 to 2,598 Republicans, usually an indicator of how the presidential election is going to go, party officials believe. Demographically, the bellwether counties tended to be whiter, older, less educated, have lower median incomes, have a lower percentage of workers in the labor force, and have higher rates of vacant housing than the country as a whole. Hes organizing a Second Amendment rally in Ridgway for Oct. 17 to make sure gun rights are fresh in peoples minds when they head to the ballot box. The indirect evidence for election fraud rests on various statistical claims about the high level of improbability of certain features of the 2020 election. The registered Republican voters (8,455) outnumber the registered Democrats (6,731) in Ottawa County. In both of the missteps, the residents wrongly picked the losing Democrat: Williams Jennings Bryan over President William Taft in 1908 and Adlai Stevenson over President Dwight Eisenhower in 1952. The Republican has been a big supporter of water quality on Lake Erie, and were looking to get another candidate that sees that as a priority.. Edie Martin is struggling to get her diner back in the black after being closed for almost three months over the pandemic. I cant lead that kind of lifestyle.. My opinion is thats just what it is, Shepherd said of COVID-19. Michael Sakal is a former reporter for The Epoch Times. He considers Trump pro-life. Republican registrations have increased from 8,467 on Nov. 9, 2016, to 9,960 as of Sept. 17 this year. All the negativity, and just pure anger for this one person in office I have never seen it before. Over the past nearly 40 years, presidential elections have observed an intriguing phenomenon: 19 counties in the nation have always voted for the winner, be it Republican or Democrat. We need election reform.. And the thing is, when they have these laws now that they arent enforcing, what good is another law going to be? I think all politicians are crooks. In 2020, all but one of the bellwethers picked President Donald Trump by a margin of some 16 points on average. Why is belief in the existence of bellwether states and counties (especially the latter) so strong? Epoch Times, Gateway Pundit, and EveryLegalVote.com show a different electoral vote count for two reasons: They exclude states with pending litigation or recounts, subtracting votes from. High scoring bellwether counties in these regions tend to border other high scoring counties, unlike their counterparts in the South and West, which tend to see high scoring bellwethers somewhat isolated from each other. Given the global context of Russias invasion of Ukraine, they believe higher gas prices and inflation is coming, and theyre not happy about it. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. That streak, which extended back to when the county supported Harry Truman became president ended in the 2020 Presidential Election when the Donald Trump won the county. I feel that if Trump is president again, that will cease. In Terre Haute, 52-year-old Scott Hamilton said the main issue for him in this election is how divided the nation is; he said Trump is mostly to blame. Previously, he covered national topics including politics, economy, education, and law enforcement. Westmoreland County, Virginia, is almost one third black. In politics, a "bellwether" refers to a geographic area whose political beliefs and voting preferences reflect that of a wider area. He was working on his neighbors lawn when he paused to talk to The Epoch Times. Wood Countyaswith Ottawa County, its neighbor to the east along Lake Erieis filled with farm fields, is home to many military veterans (about 7,000 of them), and hasnt seen much expansion or change since the late 1970s or early 1980s. Here's why. The median household annual income is approximately, In 2016, nearly 100 million eligible Americans didnt vote. No one who spoke to The Epoch Times had anything positive to say about Wolfs continued shutdowns in the state. Fifteen percent is a very large gap to close, he said. An Emerson poll conducted shortly before Election Day was completely off, showing Trump and Biden neck-to-neck. Even wearing a mask, youre still not certain. If that date were to change, the Ohio legislature is the only one who can request to postpone or change the date of an election through legislative action.. The counties are also mostly small and rural. America's most accurate bellwether counties, regions that have a reputation for accurately picking the president, got the presidential election completely wrong. The county, located along the Illinois border, has a mix of rural and urban demographics. She can be reached at cara.ding@epochtimes.com, Biden Extends National Emergency Due to Extraordinary Threat of Russian Actions in Ukraine, Suburban Wisconsin Voters Divided on Presidential Race. Bellwethers must make correct predictions regardless of which party wins election, but polarization makes it increasingly likely that counties will split into ones that vote regularly for a Republican or for a Democratic presidential nominee. The way he spoke to President Trump bothers me even more, because hes speaking to my president. He said hes concerned but hopeful for the future. They take pride in going to work, owning their home, having that simple life. They need to take care of the older people here. These 10 bellwether counties five in Sun Belt battlegrounds, five in the Frost Belt (loosely defined to include Iowa) could point us toward each state's winner. The Democrats who are vying for that partys nomination are Morgan Harper, Traci Johnson, and Tim Ryan, who has been serving in Congress for the past 2o years, or 10 consecutive terms. We need to make ourselves energy independent again. And just a few miles outside the countys urban center of Terre Haute, youll find a sprawl of soybean and corn farms, with a rural demographic that often leans Republican.
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