Barnes, the current lieutenant governor of Wisconsin, leads Johnson 51% to 44%, up from a narrow two-point lead he held in June, when polls showed Barnes had the support of 46% voters in the battleground state, which voted for former President Donald Trump in 2016 and President Joe Biden in 2020. Yet, even though his net approval rating has long been underwater, he easily won reelection in 2020 thanks to Kentuckys overwhelming Republican lean. Governor Rebecca Kleefisch. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., and Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass. This raises the question of whether Johnson in 2022 can replicate his 2016 vote in the WOW counties, or whether he needs to make up any erosion there in increasingly red rural Wisconsin. Last week, U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) reneged on his pledge to step down after two terms and announced he would seek re-election.. The November race for U.S. Senate will match incumbent Republican Sen. Ron Johnson against the winner of the August Democratic primary. PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY FIVETHIRTYEIGHT / GETTY IMAGES. But Democrats believe that Johnson will suffer due to his strong support of Trump, even though polls show Republicans benefiting in 2022 due to Biden's low approval ratings. More:'He doesn't understand medicine is a science': Ron Johnson escalates 'guerrilla war' against medical establishment, More:Here are the 11 Democrats in Wisconsin's 2022 U.S. Senate race who are seeking to unseat Ron Johnson. Many conservatives see Barnes, an outspoken progressive whos called House progressive Squad member IIhan Omar of Minnesota brilliant, as the perfect foil for Johnson to caricature as extreme. Combining the four surveys that Marquette has done over the past nine months, 35% of registered voters view Johnson favorably and 44% view him unfavorably a net rating of minus 9. Bolded rows denote senators running for reelection in 2022. These polling trends dont mean Johnson cant win this fall. All in all, 39 percent of independent voters now strongly disapprove of Johnson, nearly five times as many as those who strongly approve. 56% of independent voters in Wisconsin disapproved of Johnsons job performance up 14 percentage points since late 2020. Quarterly polls conducted from 2017-2021 among representative samples of at least 2,517 registered Wisconsin voters, with unweighted margins of error of up to +/-3 percentage points for responses shown. Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup. Lyndon B. Johnson 1963-69. By contrast, Baldwin's fellow Senator Ron Johnson elicits a much less favourable net approval rating of -22%, since 49% disapprove and 27% approve of Senator Johnson's overall job performance. Sign up for free newsletters and get more CNBC delivered to your inbox. In the race for governor, Democratic incumbent Tony Evers and Republican construction executive Tim . Republican Sen. Ron Johnson emerged from Donald Trumps presidency with his approval ratings in Wisconsin underwater and its only gotten worse under Joe Biden, even as voters there have soured on the Democratic president. Libertarian Seth Cordell and independent . One month ago, Biden had an approval rating of 42.2 percent and a disapproval rating of 52.2 percent, for a net approval rating of -10.0 points. Marquette Law School survey shows a decline in Johnson's popularity over the past few years. PPP recently conducted a poll for 314 Action in Wisconsin and found that the state unsurprisingly continues to be closely divided politically about a lot of things but not its feelings about Ron Johnson. But what we cant be as confident about is whether its reversible.. Similar to a senators PARS score, a governors PARG score can also help us get a better sense of which governors running for reelection in 2022 are best equipped to swim against the partisan tide of their states. Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) is deeply unpopular among his own constituents, according to a new poll released Monday. The Perks Workers Want Also Make Them More Productive, Then again, a senators PARS score isnt everything. George H.W. All vote results include undecided voters who lean to a candidate. Nathaniel Rakich is a senior elections analyst at FiveThirtyEight. Angus King and Bernie Sanders are considered Democrats for these calculations. According to the latest Morning Consult poll, which covered the first three months of 2019, Manchin had a +5 net approval rating. Bush 1989-93. The top 10 Senate seats that are most likely to flip to the other party. . Ron Johnson Dramatically Underperforms in First Finance Report Since Announcing for Reelection - Lt. Gov. Ron Johnson Approval Rating. In the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate, Barnes still leads, with 25% of the vote versus 21% for Milwaukee Bucks executive Alex Lasry, 9%for state treasurer Sarah Godlewski. Ron Johnson is America's second least popular senator after only Mitch (Photo by Caroline Brehman/CQ Roll Call via AP Images), Biden throws out Trump energy policy that added millions of tons of carbon pollution, Madison Cawthorn caught breaking the law again, Marjorie Taylor Greene pledges bill to criminalize gender-affirming care in CPAC speech, Republicans lawmakers show off their awards from anti-LGBTQ Family Research Council. ), Senators like Manchin and McConnell are exceptions, though. Map 1: Crystal Ball Senate ratings. So, its not a short-term fluctuation, but a strong trend, said pollster Charles Franklin, who provided the data used here. His race is expected to be very competitive. Gas prices have plummeted. In that sense, Johnsons political future may depend on maximizing turnout from the partys pro-Trump base while still winning over some anti-Trump Republicans and independents. Ditch the ads, get free stuff. In fact, senators from the party out of power (i.e., the party opposed to the sitting president . The new Marquette Law School poll shows a tight race in the Democratic primary for U.S. By this time in the 2016 election cycle, Johnsons ratings had already begun to improve, from minus 11 in the fall of 2015 to minus 4 in February of 2016 to plus 1 in March of 2016. Partisan Lean (5). Mandela Barnes leads Republican U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson among likely voters in the November election, according to the latest poll from the Marquette University Law School. Become a member for $9/month. Finally, the two governors with the worst PARGs are Democrats Kate Brown of Oregon (-25) and David Ige of Hawaii (-41). With Florida currently struggling with one of the highest rates of COVID-19 in the country, slightly more than half of voters (51 percent) disapprove of Governor Ron DeSantis' handling of the response to the coronavirus, while 46 percent approve, according to a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University poll of registered voters in Florida released today. PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY FIVETHIRTYEIGHT / GETTY IMAGES. Like we did for PARG, we can use PARS as a tool to assess the 2020 Senate elections specifically, to give us clues about which of the senators whose seats are up in 2020 might be poised to over- or underperform their partys presidential ticket. Will Democrats Rally Behind President Biden In 2024? Comparing Johnsons average net rating in 2019 with his average in the four most recent Marquette polls, Johnson has gone from: That suburban erosion can also be found in the WOW counties, the three suburban counties outside Milwaukee that for decades were a bedrock source of lopsided Republican support: Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington. Johnson won his bid for a second term that year by 3 points over Democrat Russ Feingold. Biden's approval rating rises to 45% from 36% in July. A Democratic senator with a net approval of +2 in an R+7 state has a PARS of +9 (2+7 = 9). If you are an existing member, sign-in to leave a comment. Those is Tim. John F. Kennedy 1961-63. In other words, compared with a similar low point in the previous election cycle, Johnson is doing better with his best groups and worse with his worst groups. But it has also been pronounced among some more politically mixed groups that arent as lopsidedly red or blue. Dan McKees mediocre +2 net approval rating, the fact that he is running for the office for the first time (he became governor only because he was the lieutenant governor when the old governor resigned), the pro-Republican national mood and Rhode Islands elasticity. That will be essential in a year when, based solely on partisan lean and generic congressional ballot polling, youd expect a Republican to win their home states, all else being equal. Each has a PARS between +1 and -3, indicating that their net approval rating is in line with their states partisan lean. It's just that people in the legacy media call me one and all of a sudden, you become one. Johnson, who is one of Trumps biggest supporters in the Senate, has come under fire in recent months for controversial remarks, including arguing Social Security and Medicare should be categorized as discretionary spending, spreading misinformation about Covid-19 vaccines potentially causing AIDS, saying he doesnt trust the FBI after it searched Trumps Mar-a-Lago estate last week, and sending text messages to aides revealed at the January 6 hearings indicating he wanted to hand-deliver fake electors to former Vice President Mike Pence during the 2020 election. Democrats are reportedly trying to recruit former Marine fighter pilot Amy McGrath, who raised $8.6 million for an unsuccessful 2018 congressional bid, to run against him. In Marquettes recent polling, there is now a massive 130-point partisan gap in attitudes toward Johnson: plus 57 among Republicans, minus 73 among Democrats. Johnson has also felt losses among voters from his own party. Sen. Ron Johnson of Wisconsin had not held office prior to his election to the Senate, being a CEO for a plastics and manufacturing company beforehand. Johnsons decline in popularity since 2019 has occurred among almost all groups. Pollapalooza (249) 2023 ABC News Internet Ventures. But while Johnson is unpopular, few are ready to declare his chances dead on arrival as he revs up his third Senate campaign in a state Trump lost by just a sliver in 2020. Both Kelly and Republican State Attorney General Derek Schmidt won their respective nominations with little opposition. He assumed office on January 3, 2011. The partisan leans in this article were calculated before the 2018 elections; we havent calculated FiveThirtyEight partisan leans that incorporate the midterm results yet. and his comments about vaccines and the 2020 election as chief examples. But Kleefisch did the best of the Republicans in thehead-to-head matchup against Evers, with 43% of the vote versus 47% for Evers. * Partisan lean is the average difference between how a state votes and how the country votes overall, with 2016 presidential election results weighted at 50 percent, 2012 presidential election results weighted at 25 percent and results from elections for the state legislature weighted at 25 percent. Morning Consult conducted 494,899 surveys with registered U.S. voters from October 1 through December 31, 2019, to determine the Q4 2019 Senator Rankings. Wedding-Focused Event Hall Planned for Vliet Street Near Washington Park, Friday Photos: UWMs New Chemistry Building Topped Off, Trump Recount Attorney Reappointed To Wisconsin Judicial Conduct Committee, Transportation: MCTS Buses Could Again Serve Summerfest, But Issues Remain, Housing Authority Has Waitlist Three Times Larger Than Its Affordable Housing Supply, $10.4 Million in Unclaimed Property matched to Rightful Owners, Two senior pedestrians killed attempting to cross Milwaukee streets, Eyes on Milwaukee: Train Car Bar Being Demolished, Transportation: Airport Will Rip Out Two Runways, Murphys Law: Journal Sentinel Circulation a Disaster, Milwaukee Extends Downtown Parking Meters To 9 P.M., Adds Saturdays, Protasiewicz Says She Would Recuse Herself From Cases Involving Democratic Party, Milwaukee World Festival, Inc. Wisconsin Democrats are eager to win back the Senate seat, which has been occupied by Republican Sen. Ron Johnson a top conservative foil and ally to former President Donald Trump since he . These are some takeaways from a detailed analysis of nearly a decade of polling on Johnson by the Marquette Law School. Their four most vulnerable incumbents this fall Sens. After he was elected in 2020 to serve out the remainder of the late John McCain's (R-AZ) term, Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) is seeking a full term this year. Republican Sen. Ron Johnson faces a Wisconsin electorate that is more negative toward him and more polarizedoverhim than ever. The poll is hardly an outlier. RCP House Ratings, Map. Both have negative net approval ratings despite governing fairly blue states. He is also the most unpopular Republican among the broader electorate who is up for re-election next year. At this time last week, 42.2 percent approved and 52.5 percent disapproved (a net approval rating of -10.3 points). In a state where the Democratic president eked out one of his narrowest margins of victory over Trump (just under 21,000 votes), Biden has seen his standing plummet especially in the suburban communities that Democrats relied on for 2018 midterm victories and Bidens own success. 772 days 4 . Doing this for the Senate, we get the following table of senators with the best and worst statewide brands: Senators net approval ratings (approval ratings minus disapproval ratings) for the first three months of 2022 relative to the FiveThirtyEight partisan leans of their states. That gap is significantly bigger than it was from 2013 to 2019. Quarterly poll conducted Oct. 1-Dec. 31, 2021, among a representative sample of 10,496 registered Wisconsin voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/-1 percentage points. Wisconsin paints a clear example of the collapse in Bidens popularity. The governors race in Rhode Island could be a sleeper, though, considering Gov. Republican Ron Johnson of Wisconsin had the third lowest approval rating (37%) among U.S. Published with permission of The American Independent Foundation. Richard Nixon 1969-74. Senator, Johnson won one of them, getting 45% versus 42% for Lasry. The poll also did head-to-head matchups of incumbent Republican U.S. His net favorability improved during the campaign year of 2016 from net negative to net positive. (That last figure is based on a four-poll sample of 339 WOW-county voters, with a margin of error of 5 percentage points). Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) insisted Sunday that his low approval ratings are not at all his fault and that he is "not a polarizing figure." Johnson made the comments during an interview with journalist Adrienne Pedersen on Milwaukee television . Johnson has received his highest negatives ever (the share of voters who view him unfavorably) in Marquettes last four polls. Barnes and Johnson have attacked each other as being too politically extreme and out of touch. Bemis, a major plastics manufacturer, had appointed Howard Curler as its CEO in 1978, and during the first several years of PACUR's existence, Bemis was the business' sole client. Help assure the future of citys fastest growing publication. Approval Ratings (130) This story was republished on Jan. 16, 2023, to make it free for all readers. Will they go back to the Republican Party because of Biden, or go to the polls and think, Yeah, I dont like Biden, but Ron Johnsons too crazy for Wisconsin?, he wrote announcing his re-election campaign was a good start in appealing to both the GOP base and the 6 to 7 percent who stand in the middle of the Wisconsin electorate as true swing voters. Ron DeSantis of Florida and Greg Abbott of Texas have seen their approval ratings dip amid an alarming rise of Covid-19 infections and hospitalizations in both states over the past two months, . Johnson, 67, has also been a magnet for criticism from Democrats who say he has spread harmful conspiracy theories about the . That conversation starts with Sen. Doug Jones, who comes in at No. 2020 Senate Elections (55) Though Johnson's 37% approval rating in the poll is dismal, it is actually slightlyhigher than in other recent polling. Over the past year, Johnson has suffered through his longest and deepest period of unpopularity since Marquette began polling about him in early 2013 a stretch of 61 statewide polls. Since 2019, his net favorability rating in the WOW counties has dropped from an average of plus 41 to plus-8 in the last four Marquette polls combined. A Democratic senator with a net approval of +2 in an R+7 state has a PARS of +9 (2+7 = 9). Although partisanship has been getting more important in gubernatorial races, it is not as dominant of a force in them as it is in federal elections.3. Toward the bottom of the list are five governors running for reelection whose approval ratings dont look as strong as they seem after taking partisan lean into account. Governor Mandela Barnes, and even tighter in the Republican primary for governor, with businessman Tim Michelsin a near-tie with former Lt. Gerald Ford 1974-77. ), could be Democrats best hope to flip a Senate seat in November. Jared Polis to be vulnerable in a Republican-leaning midterm in D+6 Colorado, but his net approval rating is 16 points higher than that, giving him a nice cushion in case the national environment puts his state in play. Johnson, 67, is also the subject of an ethics complaint over a $280,000 gift to his chief of staff, which he argued was intended for the employees cancer treatments, NBC News reported. Mandela Barnes is the choice of 46%. Republican Sen. Ron Johnson of Wisconsin will defend his seat against Democratic Lt. Gov. He has lost significant ground in the past few years with key voting groups such as women, moderates, independents and suburbanites, including voters in the once lopsided GOP stronghold of the WOW counties outside Milwaukee. Johnsons rating has risen from plus 50 six years ago to plus 57 with Republicans; from plus 33 to plus 46 with self-identified conservatives; from plus 15 to plus 26 with born-again Protestants; and from plus 2 to plus 9 with white noncollege men. More: The fight over Ron Johnson's US Senate seat will put Wisconsin back in the national spotlight in 2022. New Marquette Law School Wisconsin survey finds Barnes with 7-point lead over Johnson in U.S. Senate race, Evers ahead of Michels by 2 points in the race for governor, and Biden approval rating unchanged . His current term ends on January 3, 2029. 36% of Wisconsin voters approved of Johnsons job performance and 51% disapproved in the fourth quarter of 2021. That poll . Wisconsins senior senator should get a boost from traditional midterm dynamics, where the party out of power is helped by animosity toward the party in the White House. Lt. Gov. Instead of moving to the center, though, as he faces reelection this fall, the Wisconsin senator has . Johnson said it was not his "job is not to micromanage a private company" and that putting the jobs in a different state would actually "benefit Wisconsin, Oshkosh, and Oshkosh workers. Democrats are banking on Johnsons unpopularity to give them an edge in one of the only contests this year where they stand a chance of knocking off a Republican incumbent as they defend a narrow Senate majority. Barnes, 35 also has the support of independents, with 52% of respondents backing him over Johnson, a sizable leap from 41% in June. A Democratic senator with a net approval of +2 in an R+7 state has a PARS of +9 (2+7 = 9). One is that it illustrates how Johnson has come back from poor ratings before. When the dates . In the United States, presidential job approval ratings were first conducted by George Gallup (estimated to be 1937) to gauge public support for the president of the United States during their term. He has been endorsed by well-known political figures including Sens. The Democrats could have run a dead person against Donald Trump in 2020 and the dead person probably would have received more votes than Joe Biden And we would probably be better off today if a dead person had won in 2020, rather than war mongering liar Joe Biden. The poll, whose . On the flip side, Republican Sen. Ron Johnson has one of the worst PARS scores (-18); despite his home state of Wisconsin having an R+4 partisan lean, his net approval rating is -14 percentage points. Johnson's campaign had raised more than $17 million by July 20, compared with $7 million raised by Barnes though Barnes' campaign said on Aug. 1 that it raised $1.1 million in just a week, after his Democratic rivals united behind him. Just ask Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, who for years has had the worst PARS score in the country (currently -54). Scribd is the world's largest social reading and publishing site. . Based on Morning Consults approval ratings1 for every senator and governor in the country (now updated for the first quarter of 2022), PARS and PARG attempt to measure how much stronger (or weaker) a politician is than a generic (or, to use a term from baseball, replacement-level) candidate from their party would be. Shaheen has a +21 net approval rating, Warner has a +19 net approval rating and Smith has a +18 net approval rating. Hi. Several hugely divisive events have occurred since 2019, however: the GOP effort to decertify the 2020 election; the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol; and the pandemic that began in early 2020. President Joe Biden narrowly carried Wisconsin in the 2020 election. . At the same time, Johnson has grown that much more unpopular among groups that tilt Democratic, tilt to the left and were already negative toward him. Last month, he opposed federal funds to help the American microchip industry compete against China, indicating that he did not want to "have government picking the winners and losers.". and 7% for Outagamie County Executive Tom Nelson. Over the nine months previous to this, Johnson has averaged 35% favorable and 44% unfavorable ratings in the MU polls, the lowest since Marquette began polling about him in 2013. Republican Sen. Ron Johnson will defend his seat against Democratic Lt. Gov. Membership, which includes a host of perks, including an ad-free website, tickets to marquee events like Summerfest, the Wisconsin State Fair and the Florentine Opera, a better photo browser and access to members-only, behind-the-scenes tours, starts at $9/month. Ron Johnson, R-Wis., is one of the most vulnerable Republican incumbents, with the Cook Political Report rating the Wisconsin race as a toss-up and the race for Pennsylvania's open Senate seat as . (Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images), Barnes tops Johnson by 7 points in Wisconsin Senate race: poll, Ron Johnson tries for a rebrand after years of controversy and Democratic attacks, 'Out of touch': Wisconsin's Barnes and Johnson prepare for general election campaign defined by attacks. The idea behind these stats is that a 70 percent approval rating for a Democrat in Massachusetts isnt the same as a 70 percent approval rating for a Democrat in Florida. Finally, the fault lines in the electorate are deeper today than they were back then. A few weeks after the 2020 election, the Crystal Ball put out an early look at the 2022 Senate races. According to the survey of about 800 registered voters, Democratic Governor Tony Evers' approval rating slid from 50% in August to 45%. Those include Republican Sens. On the flip side, Republican Sen. Ron Johnson has one of the worst PARS scores (-18); despite his home state of Wisconsin having an R+4 partisan lean, his net approval rating is -14 percentage points. Sometimes there are these atmospheric waves where it doesnt matter what the campaign does, he said. The souring has been steepest among independent voters in Wisconsin. By Eli Yokley. He has refused to take responsibility for his unpopularity, claiming in January that it is all the news media's fault. The American Independent is the No. . Yes. During the pandemic, the senator has blasted health agencies and medical experts, promoted unproven treatments and questioned the broad push for vaccination. Glenn Youngkin, a Republican who highlighted economic and educational issues to defeat his Democratic rival last year. But the decline hasnt been even across groups. Senator, led by Lt. that Democrats relied on for 2018 midterm victories and Bidens own success. How Every Senator Ranks According To Popularity Above Replacement Senator, polls the approval ratings of U.S. senators, How The Federal Reserve Is The Shadow Branch Of The Government, Why Original Predictions About The War In Ukraine Were So Off.